Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Charlotte Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professort at Wright State and authofr ofthe report, said unemployment increases will continue at theitr accelerated pace into the third quarter of this The Dayton Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Miami and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,0090 jobs in the third quarter. That woule drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the firsf quarter of the year, a 2 percent decline. The hardest-hitg area is one the Dayton area has longreliedx on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employmenrt in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quarterd of this year to 36,100 by the thirsd quarter, a nearly 15 percent Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitin g to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expectedsto decrease. Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,10o0 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firstg quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Service employment, whicg includes financial service, business service, utilities and leisure is projected to decreaseto 324,20 0 by the third quarter, down from 326,70o0 in the first quarter, a nearlt 1 percent decline. “Th e next year to year and a half will be an unpleasantr time forthe region,” Traynor said. Constructionb employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasona employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time periord last year.
One area of employment that isn’t expected to be hit hard is health In fact, Traynor said he expecta health care to add some jobs by the thirdr quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,3009 in the first quarter. He said the rate of decliner in gross domestic product will but remain negative through the third quartetr and maybe into the fourth quarter of this Even when GDP does become positive it will take some time for employment to pick up becausre it is a lagging indicatort ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said there is a greatg deal of uncertainty still on thenational level, as businesses try to determine the impact of government actions.
Traynotr said the problem of high unemployment is not going awayanytims soon. “This is something we’re going to be living with for quitsa while, well into next he said.